The Global Carbon Project’s 2026 budget projects fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions at 38.2 billion metric tonnes, down 0.4% from 2025. The researchers attribute the small decline to both rapid growth in solar and wind and a sharp energy shock tied to the Iran conflict; oil-related emissions are projected to fall about 1.9%, while coal emissions continue to rise.

The result is a forecast, not a final measurement, and it covers fossil-fuel emissions rather than total human-caused CO₂. When land-use change is included, the project estimates total emissions will rise to about 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026. Researchers caution that a war-driven drop may not endure as energy markets adjust.

Sources: [Global Carbon Budget 2026](globalcarbonbudget.org source ↗); [Associated Press](apnews.com source ↗); [Carbon Brief](carbonbrief.org source ↗).